The Fastest Way to Cool the Planet
We definitely need to decarbonize energy, agriculture, and other sectors. But combining decarbonization with aggressive methane cuts will mitigate global warming much faster in the coming decades than decarbonization alone. Here’s why:
Carbon dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas, but reducing warming by cutting CO2 is a painfully slow proposition, like turning around an aircraft carrier. Since it persists in the atmosphere for centuries, and CO2 already emitted will continue to warm the planet for centuries. Even supposing we could zero CO2 emissions out now, and/or remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere, it would still take many decades before we’d feel any significant slowing sof global temperature rise.
Fortunately, methane, the second most important greenhouse gas, is much different. It has a half-life of just 10-12 years, so it oxidizes washes out of the atmosphere relatively quickly, transforming into water vapor and CO2, a much less potent greenhouse gas. As a result, leading scientists point out, if we eliminated all anthropogenic and some excess biogenic methane emissions, atmospheric methane levels could return to pre-industrial levels in just 10 to 20 years, reducing global heating by 0.5°C.
According to a study commissioned by LINGO, if we eliminated manmade CO2 emissions starting now, it would take until the end of this century to be felt, with a projected 0.1°C reduction in global heating by 2100. But if we eliminated anthropogenic methane emissions alone, we’d feel that 0.1°C reduction within a decade, and a 0.4°C reduction by 2050.
Another study found that combining non-CO2 emissions cuts (especially methane) with decarbonization would slow warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone, cutting the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, with half of that gain coming from methane mitigation.
To be clear, we need to do both: run the long–term marathon to cut carbon dioxide and win the sprint to cut methane in the short term. Doing one is not a substitute for doing the other. But since the timescales of the effects they each have on the climate are so different, it’s imperative we act concertedly to cut methane now.